Category: COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Comparing Early Phase of Growth with Selected Countries

Source:https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200124/coronavirus-2020-outbreak-latest-updates

COVID-19 pandemic has affected the vast majority of nations around the world. However, different countries have experienced different trajectories of growth in coronavirus infections. In India also, the pandemic is showing a growing trajectory currently despite a late start. In this article, I analyze the early phase of growth of the pandemic in selected countries in terms of growth of the total number of cases and total number of deaths with time and examine how they compare with the current phase of growth of the cases in India. Such a comparison might be helpful in understanding the future trends of growth of the pandemic in India and the steps to be taken to contain its spread or ‘flatten’ the curve.

As the coronavirus cases in India have recently crossed 3,000, I take this figure for comparing the early phase of growth in selected countries and compare the number of days taken to reach 3,000 cases from the first 100 cases. I select ten countries for comparison based on the highest number of confirmed cases as on April 4, 2020 (I have excluded China as comparable data on the early phase of growth in that country are not available). For easier comparison, I take five countries each in two groups along with India in each group. In the first set, I examine the early phase of growth in USA, Italy, Spain, Germany and France with that of India to compare the number of days taken for the cases to reach 3,000 from an initial level of 100.  This is depicted in the Fig. 1. As can be seen, it has taken 21 days in India for the cases to grow from 100 to 3,000. A significant part of the rise in cases in India has occurred in the last 3-4 days of this period, which has been linked to the Tablighi-Jamaat event in Delhi [1], [2]. However, the time taken in India to reach this level of cases is still much longer when compared to the duration for the same number of cases in the other countries in the group showing that the curve has been much ‘flatter’ in India.     

Fig.1: Coronavirus cases in select countries – No. of days taken to grow from 100 to 3000

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 4, 2020).

Fig. 2 depicts the same comparison with the other five countries in the group, namely Iran, UK, Turkey, Switzerland and Belgium. Again, we can see that the growth trajectory of the cases has been much steeper in all these countries when compared to the same for India.

Fig.2: Coronavirus cases in select countries – No. of days taken to grow from 100 to 3000

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 4, 2020).

Trends in Deaths Due to Coronavirus

It is also helpful to understand the growth trends in deaths occurring in the above countries due to COVID-19. As the number of deaths due to coronavirus in India has crossed 50 recently, I take this figure for comparative analysis of the selected countries for the number of days taken for the deaths to reach 50 starting from the first death. Fig. 3 depicts this trend. As can be observed, France is the only country in this group that has taken more days than India to cross the first 50 deaths. However, the growth rate of deaths has been much steeper in France after this stage.

Fig.3:  Deaths due to coronavirus in select countries – No. of days taken to reach first 50 deaths.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 5, 2020).

Fig. 4 below depicts the same comparative picture for the second group of countries comprising Iran, UK, Turkey, Switzerland and Belgium. As we can see, the growth trajectory of the total deaths in all these countries has been significantly steeper than that in India.    

Fig.4: Deaths due to coronavirus in select countries – No. of days taken to reach first 50 deaths.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 5, 2020).

As the analysis above shows, at this stage, the growth trajectory of the pandemic in terms of both the total number of cases and the total number of deaths looks significantly flatter in India when compared to the same during the early phases in the above selected countries. It is relevant to note here that I have not examined the impact of the lockdown on the growth of the cases as comparable data on the impact of lockdowns from the above selected countries during the early phase of the pandemic are not available.  

References:

  1. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-tablighi-jamaat-30-per-cent-of-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-delhi-mosque-event-government-2206163 (accessed on April 6, 2020).
  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-tablighi-jamaat-delhi/2020/04/02/abdc5af0-7386-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html (accessed on April 6, 2020).

 (The views expressed in this article are personal).

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The COVID-19 Pandemic: Are We Still in the Exponential Growth Phase?

Microscopic view of Coronavirus, a pathogen that attacks the respiratory tract (source: https://www.health.harvard.edu/)

The Novel Coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping the world. As on March 31st, 2020 (end of day, GMT), the total cumulative number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide had shot up to 858,355 and the total number of deaths had increased cumulatively to 42,309. The total number of new confirmed cases on a single day on March 31st, 2020 alone was recorded at 73,617. What is the trend of daily new cases worldwide and are there any signs of the growth tapering off? In other words, has the exponential growth phase of the pandemic passed or still continuing? What about the trends in deaths due to coronavirus? In this article, I make an attempt to analyze these trends based on the relevant data for a period of 31 days from March 01, 2020 to March 31, 2020.

First, it is helpful to see how the total confirmed coronavirus cases have increased over the last 30 days (Fig.1). As can be seen, the rising trend in the total number of cases can be clearly observed. The daily new cases are also clearly showing a rising trend during this period.

Fig.1: Coronavirus cases – worldwide.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 1, 2020).

To examine whether the growth in the total number of cases is still continuing at an exponential rate, we turn to another important variable – the growth factor of daily new cases. This factor is the ratio of number of daily new cases over the number of new cases on the previous day. Simply put, this factor indicates the rate at which a given quantity multiplies itself during a specific period. For example, a growth factor of 1.1 in daily new cases would indicate that the number of daily new cases has increased by 10% (by a growth factor of 1.1) over the number of new cases on the previous day. If the growth factor remains consistently above 1.0, that would indicate that the exponential growth phase in total cases is still continuing. On the other hand, a growth factor consistently below 1.0 would indicate a decline in daily new cases with the daily new cases eventually becoming zero. In such a scenario, the cumulative total number of cases would eventually stop growing.

Fig. 2 indicates the trend in growth factor of daily new coronavirus cases worldwide. As can be seen, during March 2020, only on 7 days (out of 31), the daily growth factor has remained below 1.0. On 24 days, the growth factor has stayed above 1.0. In the last ten days of this period, the daily growth factor has remained above 1.0 on eight days. This would indicate that the exponential growth in the total number of cases worldwide may still be continuing. 

Fig.2: Growth Factor of Daily New Coronavirus Cases – Worldwide.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 1, 2020).

Trends in Deaths Due to Coronavirus

It is also helpful to understand the trends in deaths occurring worldwide due to COVID-19. Fig. 3 depicts this trend during March 2020. As can be seen, the total cumulative deaths due to coronavirus are still increasing and the daily new deaths also exhibit a rising trend.

Fig.3: Deaths Due to Coronavirus – Worldwide.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 1, 2020).

To examine whether the growth in total deaths due to coronavirus is tapering off or still rising exponentially, we turn to the growth factor in daily new deaths. This is depicted in Fig. 4 below. Again, we can see that this growth factor has remained below 1.0 only on 7 days during March 2020 whereas on the remaining days, it has shown a value above 1.0. During the last ten days of the month, this factor has remained above 1.0 on nine days. Hence, the exponential growth phase in total deaths worldwide due to coronavirus may still be continuing.

Fig.4: Growth Factor of Daily New Deaths – Worldwide.

Source: The author, with data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed on April 1, 2020).

In conclusion, as the above analysis shows, we can say that the growth in both the total number of confirmed cases and total deaths worldwide due to coronavirus may still be continuing in the exponential phase. Countries around the world have been taking massive efforts to minimize the surging infections and deaths due to this pandemic. These efforts need to be increased and carefully calibrated to deal with the massive challenge on hand.

(The views expressed in this article are personal).